NFL Week 7 Predictions

Ah, the sweet smell of success. I have spent the week basking in the warm glow of an 11-3 week. Plus, of my three fantasy teams, one is in first place and another in second place in their respective leagues.

Onto this week.

Bills @ Ravens
This game will not be exciting, with the already underwhelming Raven offense lacking Jamal Lewis going against the mistake-prone, unproductive Bills. If you love defense, this one's for you since both teams have strong defenses. The Bills will make mistakes and the Raven defense will punish them for them. Prediction: Ravens.

Chargers @ Panthers
The Chargers are off to a surprising 3-3 start. At some point, teams and observers have to start taking them seriously. They field the second best run defense in the league. Their run offense has been good for several years behind LT, but now they sport a good passing game to complement it. In the last three weeks, Brees' worst game was last week where he posted a "mere" 91.7 QB rating. They have now added a pretty good wide receiver in McCardell. The Panthers have been decimated by injuries and look nothing like the team that went the Super Bowl last year. Prediction: Chargers.

Eagles @ Browns
The Eagles are running roughshod over every one. They are undefeated and have won every game by double digit margins. The Browns, on the other hand, have struggled. The offensive line is providing little protection for Jeff Garcia, who has not had a very good receiving corps to throw to. Prediction: Eagles.

Jaguars @ Colts
The Colts won the first matchup of these two teams. The Jag defense was able to slow Manning and the Colts offense to just 24 points, but their low-scoring offense only put up 17. Leftwich's yardage production has exploded in recent weeks, averaging 324 yards, after averaging a mere 130 per game in the first three games. (It is worth noting that the Jaguars lost two of those three games where Leftwich was putting up the yardage.) But the touchdowns haven't increased correspondingly. The Colt defense will give up a lot of yards to Leftwich again, but if he can only put up one touchdown pass, the Jags won't have a chance. Prediction: Colts.

Falcons @ Chiefs
Last year, the Falcons started horribly on route to a 5-11 season whereas the Chiefs exploded out of the gates on the way to a 13-3 season. This year, both are going in the opposite direction. The Falcons are 5-1 behind a strong running game (ranked 3rd in the league) and a solid defense. The Chief defense is weak, especially against the run, ranking 23rd. Their offense is founded on the running game as well, but the Falcons have the top ranked defense against the run. The Chiefs just do not stack up well against the surging Falcons. Prediction: Falcons.

Rams @ Dolphins
Picking games involving Miami is pretty easy. Go with the other team. Prediction: Rams.

Titans @ Vikings
This one should be a shootout, like the Titan game against the Packers. Under normal circumstances, the advantage would clearly fall to Minnesota's far superior offense. But Randy Moss, who has caught 8 of Daunte Culpepper's staggering 18 touchdown passes, may be out of the game. That will make the game closer, but the Vikings are winning in large part because they have developed a deep receiving corps. Prediction: Vikings.

Lions @ Giants
Last week, I expressed surprise about the low ranking of the Lion offense. I understand why. They have been hit hard by injuries. Look at their starting lineup in week 1 at running back and wide receiver. None of those guys are starting now, because they are all injured. So Joey Harrington is throwing to a team of backups. The Giant offense hasn't exactly been explosive, but they are winning games and looking pretty solid on both sides of the ball. Prediction: Giants.

Bears @ Bucs
The Buc offense is not doing much, but it is doing something. The Bears are dead in the water because of injuries. Prediction: Bucs.

Jets @ Patriots
These two teams sit undefeated (the only two in the AFC) and tied for the lead in the AFC East. The Jets haven't beaten anyone of note this year and will face a whole new level of competition. They will really have to step it up against a team far superior to any they have faced this year, much as Seattle has had to do after a fast start. The game is about positioning for the division and conference leads. The Patriots are far more experienced in big games than New York. While New England will undoubtedly lose a game or two this season, their games are about as easy to pick as Dolphin games. Go with New England. Prediction: Patriots.

Seahawks @ Cardinals
Seattle started the season as an early favorite to appear in the conference title game against Philadelphia, but have since dropped two straight games against quality opponents. The Cardinals are playing every game tough, but don't have the horses to win those close games. Seattle will step it up this week and get back on track. Prediction: Seahawks.

Cowboys @ Packers
The Cowboys have struggled this year finding a rhythm, but they still field the 8th ranked passing offense. As all Packer fans know, the Packer secondary has been scorched all season. On the opposite side of the field, the Packer passing game is ranked 2nd in the league, but they face the 9th ranked pass defense. Green Bay will need to get its running game going, but with the Cowboy passing game following the well-worn path to the end zone, that will be difficult. Prediction: Cowboys.

Saints @ Raiders
The Saints have been their normal inconsistent selves. Winning some games impressively and lose some just as impressively. The Raiders have been a model of consistency. Bad, but consistent. With Deuce McCallister back at running back for New Orleans, they should be able to get back to the impressive winning version of the team. Prediction: Saints.

Broncos @ Bengals
Before the season began, I said

I was very critical last year of Cincinnati's decision to draft Carson Palmer. Kitna had delivered a solid season in 2002, and there were pressing needs on a pathetic team. (Imagine Terrell Suggs, now in Baltimore, playing in Cincinnati.) Now, the Bengals must pay the price by demoting Kitna, who had better numbers than Tom Brady last year, and going with an untried first-time starter. The best case scenario is that Palmer struggles early getting used to the pro game, adjusts by mid-season, and starts to play solid football for the last 4-6 weeks of the season. Unfortunately by then, his struggles in the earlier part of the season will have created enough losses to continue the Bengal streak of non-winning seasons.

Sadly, my prediction has born out, so far. The Bengals have relapsed to the team they were before Marvin Lewis, sitting a lowly 1-4 under Palmer's leadership. Palmer has a QB rating of 59.6 with 4 touchdowns and 8 interceptions over five games. In the last four weeks, Palmer has 2 touchdowns and 7 INTs. (For comparison, Kitna had a season QB rating of 87.4 in 2003 with an average of 1.625 TD's/game and 0.9375 INT/game, which scale out to 8.125 TDs and 4.7 INTs over 5 games.) Dreaded adjectives like "inept" are creeping back into commentary on Bengal play. The Broncos, on the other hand, are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. I think they are the main challenger to New England for supremacy in the AFC, not Indianapolis. Denver may not have the dazzling offense Indy has, but their solid offense is well complemented by a strong defense. Their running game would challenge the Patriots. The Bengals will need a lot more Pepto after this game. Prediction: Broncos.

Last Week: 11-3
Season: 51-37